The Bulldogs are the most efficient defensive team in the land, just ahead of the Gamecocks. Hoops will be hard to come by, even as South Carolina is scoring at a rate of 10 points higher in the tourney than the regular season. Under coach Frank Martin, SC has developed a pattern, going Under in two-thirds of its last 60 games. The Bulldogs are 4-1 Under in their previous five. Factor in the dome setting, which all but guarantees lower shooting percentages, and the Under appeals.

The Gamecocks and Bulldogs have both had historic runs to reach the Final Four, but one of them has to end Saturday. I believe the magic will dry up for South Carolina as it faces a Gonzaga team with similar strengths but the better overall personnel. The Gamecocks are heralded for their defense, but the Zags have the better scoring numbers (60.9 compared to 64.9). But Gonzaga also has the edge on the offensive end, with superior depth and shooting. This is a lot of points to give, but I think Gonzaga covers and moves on to the title game.

The Cinderella story of South Carolina featured perfect matchups for the Gamecocks. They ran through guard-heavy teams before facing a conference opponent, Florida, in the Elite Eight. The Zags will be a different story. They can offset any defensive adjustment South Carolina may make with a balanced inside-outside attack. They also have the ability to play at a fast or slow tempo. That'll be a challenge for a South Carolina team that has exceeded their regular-season offensive and defensive standards. Grab the Zags to head to the title game and cover.

I really think the shooting backdrop could be an issue. I'm going Under with the top two defensive teams in the nation, per Kenpom.com.

Despite South Carolina winning its past four tournament games as an underdog, I'm still not fully buying into what the Gamecocks have done. Great story for sure, but their play has been way above who they really are. I've been rapidly upgrading their rating along the way, but they dug themselves a huge ratings hole to close out the regular season, which ended with two losses and going 1-9 ATS in the final 10 games. The Zags finally covered a tournament game by toppling another Cinderella, Xavier, who had a similar story to South Carolina's -- fading to close the season, then waking up for the Big Dance. Gonzaga's defense will break another glass slipper Saturday and get the cover.

I made this total 131, so of course I'm going Under. Gonzaga and South Carolina are the top two squads in team defense; neither lets you get a good shot early in the clock.