Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
The total for these giddy-up teams has been pushed up 3.5 points to a stratospheric number. Dead-on shooting accuracy is a pre-requisite, and a dome does not offer favorable conditions for lofty percentages. The Tar Heels are 11-5-1 to the Under in their prior 17 games, while the latest seven NCAA outings for the Ducks have fallen shy of the total. Oregon’s Jordan Bell will prevent points with his blocks and inside presence, same as UNC’s big men at the other end. A mini-block party could ensue, with the Under prevailing.
Oregon's memorable run to the Final Four has been sparked by clutch shot making and an air-tight defense that has shutdown some highly efficient offensive units. The Ducks held Michigan and Kansas to 129 combined points in winning the Midwest Region. They have the athleticism and skills and to slow down North Carolina and force the Tar Heels into a half-court game. Look for Oregon to dictate the pace with its defense and set a tempo that sends this game Under the toal.
We've got two really good defensive teams clashing, but I like the offenses to be the star Saturday with UNC being strong and steady in the paint and Oregon to be efficient from long distance. The Ducks have stayed Under in their last two, with a lock-down defense against Michigan and Kansas. But prior to those games, they had gone Over in eight of nine. North Carolina has gone Over in three of its last five and averaged an 85-71 score this season. Over is the play.
Even with what might be harder-than-usual shooting conditions at University of Phoenix Stadium, I made this total 158. Both teams love to run. Oregon won't be able to slow down North Carolina, leading to the pace we want. Go Over.
It's hard to fathom what Oregon has to do to impress the public as well as oddsmakers. The Ducks just whipped top-seeded Kansas in a game that was never really in doubt in the second half. Remember, Kansas entered that Elite Eight game looking invincible. While North Carolina deserves to be favored, this one will go down to the wire. In my simulations, Oregon is winning outright 47 percent of the time. I'm playing the Ducks on the money line.