This is one of those rare instances in which the public backs an underdog and sportsbooks will need a favorite to deliver in the NCAA Tournament. Many public bettors are newfound fans of Xavier after its stunning upset of Arizona, but I think the Bulldogs present matchup problems for the Musketeers. Big man Przemek Karnowski will present problems against the zone, and Gonzaga’s perimeter defense should limit Xavier star Trevon Bluiett. This should also have a bit of a free-flowing pace, which favors the Bulldogs.

I think Gonzaga is going to have its hands full in this one and, although the spread is justified on a season’s worth of data, I don't believe it accounts for what Xavier is doing right now. Xavier has covered seven straight games, which includes knocking off Florida State and Arizona. The Musketeers have been doing it all as underdogs and they're playing like the team that was rolling in January. Gonzaga has still yet to live up to its rating and cover in the tournament. This could be an outright upset, but I'll take the points.

I've been fading Xavier the past couple of games, but its defense has been better than I rated. Now, two solid defensive teams should hook up in a good old-fashion brawl Saturday. This should be reminiscent of Gonzaga’s tussle with West Virginia. Play the Under.

Bulldogs players might be unaware of the school’s pattern of disappointments in the tournament, but are playing as if past ousters are weighing on their minds. A blowout was their standard outcome in the regular season, yet they have covered in only three of their last nine, and none in the NCAA Tournament. One root cause is 29 percent shooting on threes. Defense has saved Gonzaga, yet Xavier’s quickness might lead to matchup headaches for the taller, slower top-seeded team. The more carefree Musketeers should make a game of this.