Kansas has been rolling, with an average margin of victory of 26 points in its three tournament wins, but this number has gotten too high to resist. This is a matter of public perception of what they last saw, moving the number so high. It's not sharp money. Oregon barely beat a hot Michigan squad 69-68 while Kansas is pummeling opponents. I'm admiring the Jayhawks run, but this is simply too many points to be giving Oregon on a neutral court. I'm on the Ducks.

Both teams love to run and both teams are super efficient on offense.

This stage of the tournament historically has spelled the downfall for Kansas. Under coach Bill Self, the Jayhawks are 2-7 outright and have covered just once in the stretch. Still, the public has pushed up the spread from 5.5, which plays right into the Ducks’ hands in ATS terms. They have won outright as an underdog three times this season. Oregon has recalibrated without injured shot-blocker and post scorer Chris Boucher, as evidenced by holding hot-shooting Michigan to 68 points on Thursday.

My Projection Model suggests there is a one-possession game in store Saturday when Kansas meets Oregon in the Midwest Region final for a trip to the Final Four. Kansas has rolled thus far, but is bound to face a new level of resistance here against a Ducks team that defends better than any opponent it has faced thus far. Oregon also has enough scorers and athletes to force the Jayhawks to work on the defensive end. Although the public will likely back the Jayhawks, my simulations see value in the underdog.

Kansas has the look of a team poised to compete for the national title, and I expect the Jayhawks to seal their Final Four bid Saturday with a win and cover against Oregon. The short-handed Ducks have put up an admirable fight in reaching the Elite Eight, but this should be the ceiling on it. I don’t see Oregon having the depth to compete with Kansas for 40 minutes and, in current form, the Jayhawks are the only side to consider here. Look for them to post another double-figure win.