Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
The string of Overs for these teams has pushed the total too high. The Boilermakers have not seen a number this big all season. Kansas is more accustomed to a huge total, having experienced six above 157. But the Boilers rank 17th in defensive efficiency and have mucho size on the front line. The Jayhawks must be marksmen from outside to score. Purdue can keep it tight throughout, which would translate into a slower pace than Kansas prefers.
Kansas has been terrible against-the-spread this season (13-18-1 ATS), but the Jayhawks have gone 6-2 ATS in their last eight with the only outright loss coming to TCU. The Jayhawks have averaged over 90 points in their last four games while shooting 52 percent from the field. They're clicking at the right time. But I like Purdue in this spot. The Boilermarkers have been playing above their rating all season, going an impressive 19-10-2 ATS. The have height, speed, defend well, take smart shots and also have the best player in the nation, Caleb Swanigan. Purdue has lost only to Michigan since February began and I think the Boilermakers match up very well here. Boiler up!
This is a great contrast of strengths, but I like Kansas to get the better of Purdue on Thursday for a few reasons. Look for the Jayhawks to swarm Calen Swanigan in the post to limit his effectiveness and force Purdue’s guards to make plays. The Boilermakers also will struggle to find an answer on defense for Kansas star Josh Jackson and point guard Frank Mason. Moreover, the Jayhawks also have the home-court advantage in Kansas City. This should be a competitive game, but Kansas pulls away late and gets the cover.
My simulations have the Boilermakers upsetting Kansas nearly half the time and staying within this number 63 percent of the time, so of course I'm taking the points here. This spread is a bit high based on the final score of Kansas-Michigan State, but were the last couple minutes really indicative of the entire game flow? Purdue is 8-2-1 ATS in its last 11 games against teams with .600-plus winning percentages, plus 6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral-site games.