Are the Wolverines really this good? The eye test says they are, as they've won seven straight (6-1 ATS). They're definitely playing above their rating, but when I look at them being favored here, something doesn't set right. I've been gradually upgrading Michigan, but I still have Oregon coming out as a 1.5-point favorite here. The big adjustment on Michigan is because of the public, which has caused a 1.5-point move. Oregon is the better team, and I don't have to lay anything.

The venue for this one should be the OK Corral, given the shootout that awaits. The Ducks’ points yield per possession has risen dramatically since the injury to rim protector Chris Boucher. The Wolverines are no longer just a collection of three-point shooters now that big man Moritz Wagner is on a tear. Boucher’s absence is not hurting the Ducks offensively. Combined, the teams have avoided the Under in their past nine outings.

Oddsmakers and the public are leaning the Wolverines' way, and they're obviously the "it" team that's gotten hot at the right time. In this matchup, though, I gravitate toward the Ducks' experience to end Michigan's strong late-season run. Grab Oregon as a small dog.

Michigan's postseason run has made for a good story and an impressive display of efficient basketball. But I don’t see the Wolverines as a Cinderella story that will see a glorious final chapter. It should end Thursday in the Midwest region semifinals against Oregon. Although the Chris Boucher injury is still a major hindrance for the long-term hopes of the Ducks, their remaining collection of players is still good enough to defend and disrupt Michigan’s half-court offense. Dillon Brooks will be the best player on the floor, and Oregon is a value play as an underdog here.

The Over has hit in four straight Oregon games, and the Over is 3-0-2 in the last five Michigan games. So naturally, we got a very high total for this Sweet 16 matchup. But do you really expect Michigan to continue their white-hot shooting? Oregon holds opponents to 40.5 percent from the field. In my simulations, the Under is cashing a whopping 80 percent of the time. Go Under.