Kansas State is getting a lot of support form observers who witnessed its ultra-efficient performance in a play-in game win over Wake Forest. But the Wildcats will find those high-percentage shots were a lot easier to come by against one of the worst defensive teams in the country in Wake Forest than they will be Friday against one of the best in Cincinnati. The Bearcats suffocate opponents on the defensive end and I think they are being a little shorted in the market here.

I know a lot of sharp guys are on Kansas State here, but my simulations project a nine-point Cincinnati win. It should help that the Bearcats are angry about their seed and eager to prove something to the Selection Committee. The Wildcats are coming off their season-best shooting performance versus Wake Forest and are unlikely to repeat that Friday. In my simulations, the Bearcats are covering 64 percent of the time. Lay the points.

I like that the Wildcats had to play their way into the tournament with an impressive win on Tuesday. Look for the Cats to build on that win while Cincinnati comes out flat out West in Sacramento. I have this game as a coin flip and my gut tells me the Wildcats win outright.