Purdue is riding a five-game win streak (4-0-1 ATS) and has buried Penn State the last two times facing them, including a 77-52 win as 13-point home favorites four weeks ago. The Boilermakers are playing a great brand of ball right now, exceeding their rating regularly to a 16-7-1 ATS record. And they've been taking care of Big Ten teams often since last season, going 15-4-2 ATS in their last 21. Penn State has gone 2-3 SU and ATS in its last five. I'm staying with the hot team.

This is too many points for a Purdue team that could be in a potential letdown spot against a Penn State team that is one of the better home underdogs in the country. The Boilermakers have taken care of business of late, and are coming off a blowout of Michigan State. They have avoided road woes against inferior teams, but the Lions are a solid club and particularly sticky at home, where they have beaten Minnesota, Michigan State and Maryland. This is nice cushion and a comfortable spot play on Penn State.

Purdue is red hot, winning eight of their last nine heading into the Bryce Jordan Center tonight. The first meeting was a blowout win for the Boilermakers and I wouldn't be shocked if we saw a repeat performance this time around. I have Purdue at -12 in my simulations. Lay it.