Simulation Picks
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Expert Picks
I usually don't look to lay points in a game with only 116 expected, but with Miami's best player, Ja'Quan Newton, out for tonight's game, points for the Hurricanes will be hard to come by. The Cavaliers are on a three-game losing streak and coming off an embarrassing loss to North Carolina. We should see a very focused Virginia team. The Hurricanes have revenge from last season's conference tournament on their minds, but just do not have enough firepower without Newton. Back UVA.
This spread has moved nearly three points off the opening number, and I'll take the value provided Monday on the favored Cavaliers. I've long maintained coach Tony Bennett's approach is great for bridging the talent gap in ACC play but a concern for next-level success, and the past few games have shown why. However, Miami struggles on offense as well and will be without suspended guard Ja'Quan Newton, who scores 15 per game. Let's buy low on a get-right game for the Cavaliers, as I expect a strong effort here.
Virginia has been unraveling lately, with three straight losses and five in its last seven games. But to be fair, four of the recent losses came on the road and the only home loss over that span came last week against a revived Duke squad. I'm looking for the Cavaliers to get back to the basics Monday against Miami and rely on what they do best, which is defend and slow the game down. They have gone 15-8-1 to the Under this season, and hold opponents to 36.9 percent shooting from the field at home. Under is the selection.
For a team that has forgotten how to score -- and has dropped three in a row outright to boot -- this is a pile of points to grant. The Hurricanes’ No. 2 scorer, G Ja’Quan Newton, completes a three-game suspension by sitting this one out, but they have two straight-up wins in his absence. The Cavs remain the nation’s stingiest defense despite allowing an average of 66.2 points -- 10.4 above the norm -- in their past five games. Combine that with the scoring slump, and the ‘Canes are attractive.
Based on current form, I like Miami with the points here. Look for a close, hard-fought game that Virginia probably wins, but not by double digits.