Typically, the Cavaliers’ trademark defense trumps the Fighting Irish’s smoothly operating offense. (They rank seventh and ninth, respectively, in efficiency.) In four prior clashes, UVA has won by an average of 13.2 points. Still, I have fallen for the Damers. They have not failed to cover going back seven games, with one push, and their rebounding will allow them to fast-break on occasion before the Cavs can set up their killer pack-line defense.

My simulations show Virginia and Notre Dame teaming up for just 120 points when they meet Tuesday, sending this game under the razor-thin total with room to spare. The Cavaliers are the top defensive team in the country (53.2 ppg), while Notre Dame is respectable at 67.4 ppg. The Irish can play at wither tempo but will likely be dragged into Virginia’s preferred snail pace. The Under is the logical position in this one.