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By any measure, this is a historic Final Four. It's the first time all four No. 1 seeds have made it to this point since the field was first seeded in 1979. Kudos to my colleague, Jay Bilas. I think he predicted it back in the preseason.
The teams represent a combined 51 Final Four appearances and multiple national championships. The combined number of wins (143) for a Final Four quartet is a record. Only Bill Self is making his first appearance as a head coach; the other three have all been to at least one Final Four before. There are a bunch of other numbers-related factoids that you'll hear over the next few days, and while I enjoy the historic significance and interesting statistics, as always, I'm most looking forward to the games.
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| Will Josh Shipp become a star in San Antonio? (Getty Images) |
But all four of these teams are terrific. All are balanced on offense and defense, blessed with excellent point guards and have game-changing reserves and stars who can take over.
With teams so evenly matched, what's going to determine the outcome? I have no idea. It could be any number of things. So instead of throwing out what I think could happen -- I'll do that Saturday on CBS -- today's space is devoted to what I hope will happen and what I'll be looking for.
Hoping for ...
• Healthy players and high-level play from all four teams. Sharp ball-handling and shot-making as well as tough, intense defense. Competitive, entertaining basketball. No blowouts. We had enough of those the first two weeks.
• The outstanding officials assigned to the games to be at their best. I think they are always quite good, and I hope the focus on game flow over incidental contact continues. Every bump, touch or flop is not a foul. And in my opinion, officials have been outstanding in this area all season, particularly in the tournament. It's a combination of controlling the game without strangling it. Keep up the good work, fellas.
• Coaches and players to remember the importance of sportsmanship and decorum in every circumstance no matter how emotional or intense the battle becomes. Be smart and handle how the game is being called. That's a huge part of pursuing the championship, too. The stakes are not an excuse to lose one's mind.
Looking for ...
• Coaching game plans and adjustments. What each team tries to take away from its opponent and how. For example, UCLA loves to double team the post, but Memphis really doesn't have a post player who requires a double team. Will the Bruins alter their approach? Transition defense will be a high priority in the Kansas-North Carolina game. Offensive rebounds and pressuring the rebounder are a couple of ways to slow down a running team. Will those strategies be employed and effective? Will the coaches show us some different wrinkles based on game situations and individual matchups?
• Poised players. UCLA has the most Final Four experience of any team in the field. I think that's worth something, but it's hard to quantify it and how it might show up. Perhaps in the form of staying out of foul trouble, getting off to a good start, not panicking if trailing and making big shots.
Two of the biggest stars are freshmen Kevin Love of UCLA and Derrick Rose of Memphis. Both are uniquely talented and have performed to the level of high expectations, but both are still first-year players. How will they perform on the biggest stage of their careers thus far? Joey Dorsey has been outstanding in the tournament, but he can be too amped-up and foul prone at times. Darrell Arthur is a gifted performer for Kansas, but he occasionally has allowed fouls to lead to frustration or vice versa.
In what could be a very fast-paced game between KU and UNC, which team will have the discipline, patience and toughness to play well if the pace slows down?
• Stars or role players? Will one of the headliners carry his team and make most of the big plays and big shots, or will it be someone else? Between the four teams there are perhaps a dozen or more that might play in the NBA some day. Of those, seven have been tabbed as All-Americans.
Collison, Love, Westbrook, Douglas-Roberts, Rose, Hansbrough, Ellington, Lawson, Arthur, Chalmers and Rush are the consensus headliners. I think all will have to perform well for their teams to win, but all are part of outstanding teams, and it wouldn't surprise me to see one of their teammates step into a starring role in San Antonio. I'll be keeping a close eye on Josh Shipp, Robert Dozier, Danny Green and Sasha Kaun as possible role players who could become game changers.
In closing, the only thing that would surprise me is if any of the games was decided in a blowout. I just think these teams are too evenly matched for that to happen. That being said, I expect to see North Carolina outlast Kansas in the other semifinal because of Tyler Hansbrough in the paint and North Carolina's overall offensive firepower. The Bruins are ready to win it all, as I wrote a few paragraphs above.
Enjoy the games.
