San Fran shouldn't be this big of a home underdog to a Reds team that just snapped an eight-game skid. Nick Lodolo has given up an alarming amount of hard contact the past two starts. Rookie Mason Black, facing a scuffling Cincy offense, has a chance to dominate in his first home start.

Sonny Gray fanned 12 Brewers on April 21, and I like him to record at least seven strikeouts Thursday in Milwaukee. The Brewers are striking out at the seventh-highest rate. Gray has gone six-plus innings in four straight starts.

Donovan Mitchell had 12 potential assists in Game 1, but finished with just five assists. Mitchell's Cleveland teammates should shoot better in Game 2 and help Mitchell clear this prop total. Mitchell continues to draw massive defensive attention and is averaging 5.5 assists in the Cavs' four playoff losses.

Twins starter Chris Paddack has allowed four runs over his last three starts, pitching an average of six innings. Against righties, the Mariners strike out an MLB-high 29 percent of the time. Seattle is the only team striking out more than 10 times per game. Back Paddack to fan at least six for the third time in four games.

Rookie Dereck Lively II is in for.a bigger role this series after he played well vs. the Clippers (8.8 ppg, 6.9 rpg in 20.3 mpg). Maxi Kleber dislocated his shoulder, so another Mavericks big man has to step up. Top candidates are Daniel Gafford and Lively, and I'm betting it's Lively. The 7-1, 230-pounder earned 24.5 minutes per game over the last two against the Clippers, registering nine and seven rebounds. He's 8 for 8 from the floor in that span. Look for Jason Kidd to give Lively at least 25 minutes.

St. Louis has scored three or fewer runs in six of its last eight games. For the season, the Cards rank 26th in wRC+ and 28th in OPS (.625). St. Louis starter Miles Mikolas, 35, is posting career-worst numbers in a lot of metrics, including allowing a 45.2 hard-hit percentage. Look for the Mets to get a strong start from Jose Butto -- he's allowed two or fewer runs in four of his five starts -- and notch their second straight win in the series.

Boston's Kutter Crawford faces a struggling Braves team with the eighth-highest strikeout percentage vs. right-handed pitching. Crawford has cleared this prop total in all but one start this season. Last time out, Crawford went seven innings against the Giants, fanning six. He's gone at least six innings in three straight starts. Look for the Braves to chase some bad pitches and strike out at least five times.

There are still 8.5s in the market in the -140 range, which I'd recommend. But I'll still go Over 9.5 at plus-money for Mike Conley. He had 10 assists and four rebounds in Game 1 -- the fourth time in five playoff games he's cleared this prop total. He's also played 31 or more minutes in four straight. This is the 36-year-old Conley's best chance ever for a ring, and he's playing like it.

Jamal Murray (calf strain) is questionable but fully expected to play. It's a quick turnaround after Game 1, when he went scoreless in the first half but finished with 17 points. Murray played just 34 minutes -- five fewer than in any game this postseason. That's likely a result of his lingering injury. Murray could very well hit the game-winning jumper to tie the series, that's how good he is in clutch situations, but against this elite Minnesota defense I like him to stay Under 23 points.

Mariners starter Luis Castillo has been dominant for three straight outings, posting a 0.90 ERA while allowing nine hits over 20 innings. He has 22 strikeouts and four walks in that span. Last season, Castillo was sharp in two starts versus the Twins. Minnesota just had its 12-game win streak snapped, but Seattle is hot too, entering on a 17-9 run. Look for Josh Rojas (1.029 OPS) to stay hot as the Mariners send Minnesota to its second straight loss.

Tyrese Haliburton averaged 19.7 points against the Knicks in the regular season. After three full days off, I like him to score at least 18 in Game 1. With all-world Knicks defender OG Anunoby expected to guard Pascal Siakam, Haliburton will need to be as much of a scorer as he is a distributor.

Darius Garland played 43 minutes on Friday and is in line for 40-plus minutes in Game 7. It's a quick turnaround, and he's facing a long and disruptive Magic defense. Look for Garland to commit at least three turnovers for the fourth time this series.

Dane Dunning was dominant last time out, fanning 10 Reds and walking none in 5.1 innings. He's held current Royals batters to a .200 average and .598 OPS. Royals starter Michael Wacha has allowed 31 hits over his last four starts, with a poor 15:7 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Back the defending champs to snap K.C.'s three-game win streak.

If Rudy Gobert stays out of foul trouble, he should clear this number. He did it in eight of his last nine games and in both meetings with Denver this season. Gobert anchors Minnesota's NBA-best defense; expect him to play 35-plus minutes and make a big impact against a Nuggets team that gave up a ton of points in the paint to the Lakers.