Larry's Picks (2 Live)
Larry's Past Picks
Tigers starter Matt Manning has been up and down from the minors this season. I like Arizona to get to Manning early and avoid the sweep behind Jordan Montgomery. Detroit has the fifth-lowest OPS (.624) against left-handed pitching.
Knicks guard Miles McBride has become an important player in this series, and he's gone Over this number in four straight. Even with the expected return of Josh Hart and OG Anunoby, McBride should get his shots. He's taken an average of eight 3-pointers in the past three games, and should make at least two Sunday.
I like this spot for George Kirby who has surrendered 3 or fewer ER in five of his last six starts. Kirby will face an Orioles lineup that has been slumping against opposing right handed pitching recently. Look for Kirby to produce another quality outing today.
Like many role players, Aaron Nesmith shoots better at home: overall, from deep and at the foul line. That's one reason I bet him to score at least 10 points in Game 6. As long as Game 6 doesn't turn into another blowout, Nesmith will play 30-plus minutes as Jalen Brunson's primary defender. Nesmith torched the Knicks for 18.3 points per game in three regular-season meetings, though he's Over this number in only two of five playoff matchups. Look for him to be aggressive offensively and attack Brunson, who cannot afford to get into foul trouble.
Rays lefty Tyler Alexander has been shaky over his last four starts, posting a 6.16 ERA with an alarming hard-hit rate. Right-handed batters own a .901 OPS against him; Toronto will have a mostly right-handed lineup Friday. Current Blue Jays own a collective .931 OPS against Alexander. Look for Toronto to score at least three earned runs off the 29-year-old southpaw.
Mike Conley (strained calf) is questionable after sitting out Game 5. He was present at shootaround Thursday. The expectation is that with Minnesota facing elimination, he'll play. But he could focus primarily on facilitating -- he's averaging 7.8 assists in the series -- and his minutes could be reduced. Look for Conley to try to get Anthony Edwards back on track after Ant's 5-of-15 performance in Game 5.
With their season on the line, the host Timberwolves can't let Nikola Jokic destroy them again. He had 40 points and 13 assists in Denver's Game 5 win. Sending more help at Jokic should put more of a playmaking and scoring burden on Jamal Murray. He typically elevates his game on the road, anyway, having cleared this prop in nine of his last 10 road games. In this series, Murray posted 29 and 27 combined points plus assists in Minnesota.
The Pirates are 3-8 in their last 11 visits to Wrigley Field, but I like them to get off to a good start against Justin Steele. The lefty injured his hamstring on Opening Day and this will be only his third start since returning. Last Saturday in Pittsburgh, Steele gave up three homers and six earned runs in just four innings. He sports a 5.43 FIP this season. Back the Pirates and impressive rookie Jared Jones (2.68 ERA, 0.87 WHIP) to be tied or ahead after five innings.
The Cardinals go for the sweep after scoring 17 runs in beating the Angels on Monday and Tuesday. Paul Goldschmidt's bat has begun to wake up, as he's 5-for-14 with three RBIs during his team's three-game win streak. The Angels have lost three straight and five of six. They have the worst bullpen ERA (5.21) in MLB.
The Rays' Taj Bradley makes his second start after fanning seven Yankees last Friday. This is a much better matchup strikeout-wise: Boston fans the eighth-most versus right-handed pitchers, while the Yankees strike out at the fourth-lowest rate against right-handers. Look for Bradley, who threw 93 pitches against New York, to record at least six strikeouts. But please shop around because this prop is available at -120 or lower at multiple books.
Al Horford barely eclipsed this number in Game 1, but hasn't come close the past three games. This game obviously has blowout potential; the 37-year-old Horford could very well play under 30 minutes. Horford, who went 0 for 10 from deep in Cleveland, could get a boost from the home crowd, but with this being another quick turnaround game I still like him to finish Under.
Derrick White has been cold for three straight games, but after Jrue Holiday played 43 minutes in Game 4, I'm expecting White to be a bigger offensive contributor in Game 5. When Boston closed out Miami at home in Game 5, White went off for 25 points despite playing only 29 minutes. Look for White to score at least 14 Wednesday.
Reid Detmers has been hit hard in his last four starts, allowing 22 earned runs. The Cardinals have been mostly terrible offensively but erupted in Monday's 10-5 win over the Angels. Look for them to keep it going against the struggling Detmers, providing enough run support for ace Sonny Gray (4-2, 2.29 ERA, 31.9 percent strikeout rate).