I'm looking to fade PJ Washington despite him scoring 20+ points in three consecutive games. While I believe he is a regression candidate as I do not buy that Washingto has suddenly emerged as a 20 PPG scorer, he has a green light offensively and is playing big minutes, while clearly benefiting from the defensive attention Luka and Kyrie command. Meanwhile we're getting a big RA line here as Washington averaged a combined 7.7 RA in the regular season. Washington has been the second leading rebounder in this series vs OKC and I do not believe that is sustainable.

Chet stepped up in Game 4 and provided OKC with a secondary scoring punch that they needed in order to even what has been a very competitive series. Chet logged 40 minutes in Game 4 which were the most minutes he has played in the playoffs. I expect him to receive similar PT/heavy minutes again tonight barring foul trouble. If we look at the rebound distributions in this series, I would offer that Chet is running cold and with the likelihood of him getting a significant bump in playing time, coupled with a RA line that he averages despite playing fewer than 30 MPG, this line looks much closer to his floor.

Framber Valdez is having another solid season for the Houston Astros and it is impressive how consistent his numbers are, in addition to this strikeout metrics. However I believe this number is 1K too high and the Athletics are no longer the pushover that theyve beenin recent seasons. Oakland possesses the 9th highest K rate versus lefties, in addition to ranking 16th in OPS against opposing southpaws, which is a marked improvement compared to last season.

Javier Assad's transition from a reliever to a starter has largely been a success, however his counting stats do not tell the full story. For starters, Assad has struggled when facing the order for the third time as opposing hitters have a slash line of 391/444/696. As a result Assad is on a fairly short leash and has failed to go deeper than 5 IP in half of his starts this season. Assad will be facing a Braves lineup that is still one of the most potent lineups and possesses the fifth highest OPS in the league this season.

This is just a gigantic combo line for Jayson Tatum who has failed to eclipse this RA number in 6 of 9 playoff games. With this series shifting back to Boston and the Celtics checking in as 14.5 point favorites, there is some major blowout potential which could lead to a few less minutes for Tatum tonight. Look for the Celtics to close out Cleveland in what should be a low scoring environment with minimal possessions.

This is a huge scoring prop for Jrue Holiday who is averaging 10.1 PPG in these playoffs and has been held under this number in seven of nine playoff games. Holiday has had back to back games scoring at least 16 points however he has 7/12 three point field goal attempts which is going to be difficult to sustain, especially in a paced down low scoring environment. Holiday logged 43 minutes in Game 4 after failing to eclipse 38 minutes during this playoff run. Holiday played significantly more than both Jaylen Brown and Derrick White which I also don't believe will be the case in Game 5 tonight.

Alec Marsh has been a pleasant surprise for the 26-18 Royals this season. Marsh owns a sterling 2.53 ERA and has gone at least 5 IP in 4/6 starts this season. Marsh will be facing a Mariners lineup that has been just dismal this season. I also like that Marsh will be in one of the most pitcher friendly environments at T-Mobile Park in Seattle.

Martin Perez has gone at least 5.1 IP in five of his last seven starts. Perez will face a Brewers lineup that really struggles against opposing southpaws as they possess the 6th lowest OPS, paired with the 4th highest K Rate. Perez threw just 73 pitches in his last outing against the Angels and I like his chances to go 6 IP today.

Getting this play out ASAP as this was my threshold regarding the juice I am willing to pay and this game starts shortly. Love this spot to fade Bradish against one of the stingiest lineups in the league. I would also suggest that Bradish is running above expectations on strikeouts, albeit small sample. Shop around but this is a fantastic spot to fade him.

Logan Gilbert is having a strong season and has been a viable Cy Young candidate through a quarter of the season. While 6 Ks isn't a particularly daunting number for Gilbert considering he has eclipsed this prop in seven of his eight starts this season, it is a very tough matchup against a Royals lineup that sports the second lowest K rate in the league. An additional component I like is KC has faced Gilbert a lot and not only do they own a solid .821 OPS against him over 59 ABs but have only struck out 15x, good for just a 25% K rate.

This Mariners roster not only leads the league in strikeouts but they also struggle from the plate. That being said, 6 Ks in a big number for Michael Wacha and I don't believe the matchup is quite as bad as it appears at first glance. Wacha tends to really struggle the 2nd and 3rd time through the order, thus if he doesn't record a lot of strikeouts in the first 2-3 IP, he's very unlikely to eclipse this line. Wacha has failed to record 6 Ks in 6/8 games this season. Additionally, the Mariners have solid career numbers featuring minimal Ks against Wacha.

This is a big number for Ronel Blanco who has been held under this line in 5/7 starts this season. If we look at Blanco's underlying metrics he is not generating many whiffs and the data indicates he is running hot on strikeouts. Blanco is facing an A's team that does sport a high K Rate, however they are no longer the cupcake matchup they have been historically considering they are much more proficient at the plate. Oakland possesses a respectable .685 OPS against opposing righties, however if we zoom in a bit closer, the A's lineup have been on a tear over the last few weeks.

Looking to fade TJ McConnell after the Point Guard posted his second double double of the series, which is all the more impressive considering hes only playing 21 MPG. Despite some big performances from McConnell it is very unlikely he has earned additional playing time keeping in mind that both he and Tyrese Haliburton are not nearly as effective without the ball. In addition to McConnell lacking the ability to stretch the court which makes him one dimensional and hard to play at crunch time. I look for the Knicks to slow things down as limit possessions as the series shifts back to New York.

Jose Butto will be facing a red hot Phillies lineup that has been as good as any lineup in the league and ranks in the top 5 in virtually every hitting statistic/metric. They also have been stingy against opposing right handed pitching as they possess the 10th lowest K rate. The Phillies have also faced Butto 3x since 2022 and have excellent numbers against the 26 year old hurler.

Chet Holmgren has had a terrific rookie season and his excellent play has carried over to the playoffs where he is averaging 15/8/3. Holmgren has been a bit quiet so far against Dallas but I like this as a buy low spot for the young Center, considering Holmgren averaged 24.4 PR in the regular season, despite logging significantly fewer MPG than he is in the playoffs. So far Derrick Lively and Daniel Gafford have done a good job on Chet, however I believe we'll see him be more aggressive in Game 4 and I like his chances to have his best game of the series.