Man the Guardians are so much better than I thought they would be. But this is also the end of seven-game trip so a natural letdown spot ahead of a flight home. Carlos Carrasco has a 6.20 road ERA. Closer Emmanuel Clase likely is not available. Pretty big sense of urgency in Bruce Bochy's clubhouse, at least for mid-May, considering the World Series champs have lost five straight and could fall under .500 for the first time this season. That's definitely some motivation. Since the start of April, Jon Gray has an AL-best 1.50 ERA.

All I want is overtime. The Avalanche will be obviously desperate down 3-1. I'm assuming one of their key guys will not be suspended for six months as the puck is about to drop tonight as happened in Game 4 to Valeri Nichushkin. Hadn't heard of that before. But blueliner Devon Toews is back after missing that injured. Never would have played Colorado ML in Game 4 had I known those two were out. The big reason I'm gonna try this, though, is Dallas will be without Roope Hintz (30G, 35A in RS). Hintz has two goals and six points in nine playoff contests. I deserve this after the Rangers' third-period fiasco the other night.

Was not on my radar at all but Ronald Acuna is getting his first day off this season -- granted, not close to what he was last year but it's significant -- and still no Austin Riley for the Braves. Javier Assad has been incredibly good for the Cubs. Like too good so it can't continue, but we only need a one-run loss.

The Marlins' bullpen might be in tatters after the team played a third straight one-run game Tuesday. Starter Trevor Rogers (0-6, 6.57) has allowed 12 earned runs in just 5.2 innings over his last two outings. Detroit's Casey Mize, the former No. 1 overall pick, can be a bit untrustworthy on the road but has a 2.65 ERA at home in three starts.

Getting the O's only -125 at home means I have to play something even though Jays starter Yusei Kikuchi has been very good this season. A lot of Orioles hitters have good career splits off him. This may well get rained out like last night's did when Chris Bassitt was to pitch for the Jays and we liked that much better. The O's have been very good at home vs. lefties like Kikuchi, though.

Was planning on taking today off picks-wise after every bad break possible mushroomed on me last night in a disaster. Of six picks I made, at one point thought I was gonna win five and in the span of about 45 minutes it all went bad. Who gets suspended a few hours before a freaking NHL playoff game (Avalanche) when at the morning skate? Ah well. But then I saw the DraftKings props trends for tonight -- which you can find in the daily premium newsletter I write if you have signed up -- and this popped out so will throw something down as Gordon shoots 3s much better at home as it is and has made multiple 3s in three straight games.

This replaces the Jays-Orioles pick -- although maybe the gambling gods are trying to tell me something. Blanco has allowed more than two earned just once and the A's have never seen him. Blanco might be starting an inevitable fade but against this lineup should be OK. The SL Model has 1.9 ER allowed, and I'm simply hoping for 5 IP, 2 ER.

Dallas is excellent, but it still would be moderately surprising for the Avs to lose back-to-back home playoff games. Nathan MacKinnon (9-12—21 in 18 GP), Mikko Rantanen (6-15—21 in 18 GP) and Cale Makar (2-14—16 in 12 GP) have plenty of experience in games where the Avalanche trailed in a playoff round. And Colorado might get back injured forward Jonathan Drouin tonight. He scored a career-high 56 points in 79 games this season but was hurt in the RS finale. Drouin is a game-time call.

Don't love this matchup but also don't think the Rangers should be getting the +1.5 at home so we'll play a little out of principle. Cleveland just lost three of four at the awful White Sox over the weekend and tonight's pitcher, Tanner Bibbe, had his worst outing of the season last time out. A few Rangers have good if limited splits off him. Texas was embarrassed over the weekend in a home sweep by Colorado but that only makes me like the Rangers more in this spot because they certainly won't rest any healthy key guys after that. The Texas bullpen is in very good shape at least.

The Bucs could be really thin in the pen after back-to-back one-run games over the weekend against the Cubs with the finale going 10 innings. Starter Mitch Keller is 0-4 with a 6.23 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Brewers. Will consider a Rhys Hoskins hitting prop as he's 5-for-8 career off Keller with two doubles and a triple. Not a huge Colin Rea guy for the Brewers but like most everything else here.

This price is obviously stupid, but I can't believe the Rangers are home dogs up 3-1 and unbeaten at MSG in these playoffs. Happily take the +1.5 gift. Our max is two units, so that's the play. You can definitely count on this being part of my new daily Twitter (will never say X) parlay as well Monday, but I'm fine solo. While I'm certainly not ruling out the Canes winning (couldn't care less who wins), I would be quite surprised if it's by multiple goals barring some empty net nonsense and that's obviously the risk. Igor Shesterkin has won eight straight home starts dating to the regular season.

Two pretty blah offenses, and the winds apparently are blowing in at pitcher-friendly Comerica Park. Kinda surprised this rose to 9, and I'm gonna play 9.5 to avoid a possible push. I do worry a tad about Marlins starter Sixto Sanchez and his 7.50 ERA this season, but he once was a very touted prospect and had a solid 3.46 ERA last year as a rookie. Matt Manning once was one of Detroit's top prospects. The 26-year-old is 0-1 with a 4.24 ERA in three MLB starts this year but had a 3.75 ERA at home in 2023.

Toronto's Jose Berrios is 10-1 with a 2.98 ERA vs. Baltimore career but the vast majority of those came when the Orioles weren't any good. Berrios has been very good this year, too, but crushed last time out in Philly and generally pitches much worse outside of Toronto. There apparently is a bit of a bug going around the Jays clubhouse too. They are only 5-12 in their past 17. Baltimore's Corbin Burnes, the second favorite for AL Cy Young, hasn't allowed more than three earned this season.

This series reminds me why I started liking hockey as a kid. Dudes flying around and scoring plenty of goals. Really an entertaining first two games. Thought maybe the Canucks would go back to Casey DeSmith in net after Arturs Silovs allowed four goals in each of the first two, but Silovs is in there again. Counterpart Stuart Skinner hasn't been any better in this series but had significantly better home numbers during the regular season.

Can't say I was too surprised the Nuggets showed championship mettle in a must-win Game 3, but Nikola Jokic still is not shooting that great in the series, at least by his super-high standards. Minnesota's defense has been about six points better at home in these playoffs and I don't see the Wolves bricking 23 3-pointers again.