Mackenzie's Past Picks
This line is available for a lot better prices if you shop around. I have to back the guys fighting for their lives tonight, and that means hitting the boards harder. KAT has followed up his poor rebounding games with double digit games throughout the series. History would tell us tonight he should get back on track. The SL model has him projected for 8 rebounds, and I expect four quarters of effort will get us there tonight.
Either game script leads me to believe this can hit. Anthony Edwards will have to show up big for Minnesota if they want a shot at this game, or he will be playing from behind and want to put up threes. The shot volume has been there the past three games: 8, 8, and 5 three-point attempts, and he's gone over this total in 3 of the 4 games. The urgency of this game should allow us to see similar volume again.
OKC as a team will shoot better from deep. This is one of the best 3-point shooting teams of the regular season who had an off night. Chet Holmgren was 1/6 from deep in Game 2 and I expect one more to fall today. The shot volume is there and he as historic success hitting this over against Dallas, and also went over this in Game 1. This is worth a play at even money.
This has to be the turnaround game for Aaron Nesmith. He only put up a 9 PRA in Game 2, but does average 20.9 against the Knicks on the season. In Round 1 he showed that he bounced back from poor games (10 PRA turned to 19, 14 turned to 23.) He had plenty of open missed shots in Game 2, and i expect him to remain an after thought for the Knicks defense. I also expect the entire Pacers squad to show more effort on the boards as they have been out-rebounded by double digits this series.
This is nothing Aaron Nesmith isn't capable of against the Knicks. The over is 7-0 vs New York, averaging 16.6 points. Nesmith comes into this game 4-1 to the over playing major minutes, with only Obi Toppin coming off the bench. We just need him to play 30+ minutes before fouling out.
Luka Doncic can have a great game without 10 rebounds. When players like Luka deal with injuries, it shows up the most on the boards. I think Luka will save his energy for his scoring and pick his battles here. That's why you bring in guys like Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford. In the last 2 games of Round 1, he only had 7 rebounds each. And may I add they could be considered "must win" games. Luka will have a few different fish to fry, and I don't think rebounds will be the biggest concern.
We will see a different Evan Mobley this series. Against Orlando, he was mostly concerned with guarding the 3-4 young athletic bigs that were down in the paint with him at any given moment. With no Porzingis, and a less athletic Al Horford as his biggest problem, I see Mobley having some more offensive opportunities. If we get Jarrett Allen tonight, it gives Mobley more time to focus on his shot. If we don't get Allen, he should still get enough action to eclipse this, knowing that Darius Garland is shaky and Donovan Mitchell can't do it all on his own. The SL makes the number 17.
This is where the Timberwolves can attack the Nuggets. The Nuggets proved really vulnerable in the paint against the Lakers, allowing 60%+ two-point percentage on any given night. AD statistically worked them both on the boards and offensively. While i'm not expecting and average of 48 points and rebounds from Rudy Gobert, I do think we can hit 14 points. Gobert eclipsed this in Denver in March, and just fell short in April because he fouled out. I can't imagine fouling out will be an option in a game that holds so much importance for this Timberwolves team that needs an early win. Gobert comes into this game 7-2 to the over, and the SL model makes the number 15.
I mean this is what Batum does. He's eclipsed this in the past four games, and we have an injured Mitchell Robinson. Joel Embiid can turn it off on the boards on any given night, and I expect Batum to continue playing heavy minutes as the Sixers have shortened their bench the past few games.
This guy will be on the floor tonight. I expect a ton of defensive attention to be directed towards Jalen Brunson, leaving opportunity for guys like Miles McBride. McBride has proven his minutes on the court as Donte Divincenzo has not been impressive, and he's soared over this his past two games.
This should be a solid spot for Brook Lopez, even better with Dame in the lineup. Lopez has eclipsed this line in 3 of 5 games this series, only slightly going under in Game 5 because they sat the fourth quarter. He does well with Dame and gets a ton of three point opportunities with him on the court. Look for heavy minutes and heavy production from Lopez tonight.
The volume is there for PJ Washington. We've fell just short of this two games in a row and it's giving us the opportunity for a buy low spot. Washington is 1 for 9 from deep in his past two games, with the good news being he's put up 8 attempts. Dallas needs a better performance from him tonight to stay in this game, especially with a not 100% Luka. The Model makes the number 12.
Let's talk about guys who will stay on the court. I'll be the first to admit I'm not entirely sure how this game script will play out, so I'm looking to guys who I know will be on the court regardless. The Miami injuries are adding up with Jaime Jaquez now out and Duncan Robinson still limited. Highsmith is in line for at least 25 minutes here. He's eclipsed this number in both games this series he played 26+ minutes.
Season trends go out the window here. There are only so many players left on Miami's roster who can score the basketball. He only played 16 minutes in Game 4 and had 3 points, but aside from that he's eclipsed this over in every other game. He should see at least 25 minutes tonight, and in that case the over is 10-4. The Sportsline Model makes the number 11.
This is an insane line. I understand he had 18 in Game 3 but this feels like a bit if an exaggeration. He's only his this over twice in his last 15 games. In his highest production, 30+ minute games this season, he is still hitting this under in 12 of the 14. Same story with games without Giannis: strong trends to the under. I think Bobby Portis can have himself an awesome game across the board tonight, but I think that can be done with 11 boards.