Sia's Past Picks
The Dodgers travel home after taking a loss to the San Francisco Giants last night and get to face a struggling Reds team coming off losing 2 of 3 at Arizona (The Reds have only won twice in the month of May). This is a dream matchup as the Dodgers roll out NL Cy Young Candidate Tyler Glasnow. The Reds appear to be putting up the combo of Brent Suter and Nick Martinez. To the extent the Dodgers put up duds with their bats, it's usually against elite pitching and we don't have that here. Laying the run line with this much juice is not something I really ever do, but it's warranted in this spot.
The injuries are mounting for the Knicks and there's a good chance they are very short-handed against the Pacers on Friday. The Pacers have played really good basketball only to get outplayed late in each game, but now they're at home and I think some of the clutch sharp shooting regresses for the Knicks. The officials likely give Carlisle and company a kinder whistle in Indiana and I think they pulll away in this one. Get this line early before it climbs.
I think it's a good spot to the lay the run line with the obvious pitching edge in Wheeler over Sandoval, but also the obvious bullpen edge on the Phillies side as well. Wheeler has been outstanding over his last two starts while Sandoval slipped quite a bit in his last two against the Twins and Reds. The Phillies have won 5 of 6 and each of those wins were by 2 or more runs. They do it again in Anaheim.
The A's earned a 4 game split with the Yankees and now continue their road trip by heading to Baltimore. This will be Oakland's 8th road game in 8 days and they are outmatched in every spot. The Orioles will lean on Corbin Burnes who has been a bit erratic, but enjoys a nice bounce back spot against an A's team that is terrible against righties. Ross Stripling is on the mound for Oakland and the Orioles have been feasting on righties. We forego the 3 outs in the bottom of the 9th and look to get up early in this one.
I liked the Knicks going into this series, but it was plain to see that they could have easily lost both of their home games. Now the Sixers get their home crowd and perhaps the benefit of some 'home cooking' from the officials as it was pretty clear there were some missed calls down the stretch of game 2. The Sixers have played very good defense in spurts and that has led to some erratic play from Jalen Brunson among others. I suspect we see more of the same in Game 3. Great spot for the Sixers to pull away.
Dylan Cease is looking solid so far this season and has gone six innings in each of his last three starts (while also striking out 7 in each of those games). He's only allowed one earned run over his last two starts. Gomber goes for the Rockies and he's clearly the inferior pitcher on a team with the inferior bullpen and overall lineup. We should see enough big innings from the Padres to cover this run line.
The pre-finals 'hypothetical' line was at sportsbooks prior to Saturday night's games and it was set at 5.5. As soon as Uconn beat Alabama that line was pounced upon and it's now at 6.5 in many markets. Purdue has had a nice run and they're a good team, but they're not the caliber of Uconn. Uconn has size to deal with Edey on the interior and I think Purdue's guards get swallowed up by Uconn's perimter defense. The boil cools to a simmer on Monday night and the Huskies triumph by 7 or more.
The Suns go to New Orleans for the last leg of a long road trip, but they did have an extra day of rest over the Peleicans. The Suns have been very inconsistent which should be a suprise to absolutely nobody, but they have played up to good competition on the road in big spots (see win at Denver) and this qualifies as a similar big spot and a similar situation as their win in Denver as the Nuggets were down Jamal Murray and the Pelicans are still down Brandon Ingram. It'll be too much scoring from the Suns and they get the win.
There's no question that Creighton is a solid team that can beat anyone if they are shooting well from beyond the arc, but we've seen plenty of variance when it comes to their outside shooting. I think we'll be on the correct side of that variance against a very athletic Tennessee team. Oregon did a great job containing Creighton in the 2nd half last weekend I think we'll see more of the same tonight against the Volunteers. Creighton is a fundamentally sound team and they matchup very well from an analytics standpoint, but they fail the eye test against the Vols.
Clemson is playing great basketball at the perfect time and now they face an Arizona team that has been very inconsistent this season. Yes, Arizona wins this matchup in most of the offensive and defensive efficiency metrics, but Clemson provides some matchup problems for Arizona as well. I expect Hall, Hunter and Girard to have big games and I expect Clemson to frustrate Arizona into bad shots by slowing the game down. One thing Clemson has been able to do all season is play highly ranked teams tough and I don't expect that to change against Arizona.
Baylor finished the season 3rd in the Big 12 while Clemson finished 5th in the lesser ACC. To Clemson's credit, they did play the top tier of the ACC very tough (UNC/Duke), but they also had some troubling losses down the stretch (ND/BC). Baylor can beat you in a myriad of ways and that includes cleaning up on the boards and perimiter shooting. I also think they have the type of star power than can carry them through big tournament games. I'm not sure which Clemson team we're going to get in this one, but I'm also not sure it matters.
North Texas went on the road a few days ago and beat an LSU team that played very well down the stretch of the season. Seton Hall didn't close the season super strong and I question their motivation in this one relative to North Texas. North Texas won the NIT last year and they exhibited their motivation to win again by going all out against LSU. I expect a similar performance on Saturday. North Texas plays great defense and when they get hot beyond the arc, they are tough to beat. Seton Hall doesn't have the firepower to be a two possession favorite.
Nevada comes in as the hotter team, particularly away from home, and that will serve them well on a neutral court. I'm unimpressed with Dayton's defense down the stretch and that poor defense has resulted in recent losses to Loyola Chicago and Duquesne. Nevada won seven games in a row prior to their MWC loss to Colorado State and I expect the winning to resume as long as Dayton doesn't get super hot from the 3-point line.
LSU was very solid down the stretch as they tinkered with their starting lineup and rotations. Those stretch-run adjustments by head coach Matt McMahon led to wins over Kentucky and South Carolina among others. North Texas plays great defense, but is too reliant on 3 point shooting and I think their offense will sputter at times. LSU beat this North Texas team in November by 4 and LSU is a better team now than they were back then. North Texas won the NIT last year, but I think they're an early exit this year.
It's a good spot for the healthy Golden State Warriors as they battle at home against the Knicks who are still without Robinson and Randle who have a banged up OG Anunoby. I expect Anunoby to play, but it'll certaily be a bonus for this pick if he sits and waits to play Denver on Thursday. Either way, the Warriors come in the more healthy team and motivated to steal some wins back after losing a few games without Curry. The Warriors have Curry back and have contributors everywhere at the moment, including from Klay Thompson off the bench. Good spot to catch the Knicks on their 3rd of 4 road games in a row.