Brad's Past Picks
After Boston lost Game 2 to the Heat in the first round, everyone overreacted -- partially because of the history of that rivalry -- and all the Celtics did was come out and boat race the Heat by 24 in the first half of Game 3. I don't think the lead will be that big tonight, but I do expect the Celtics to put their foot down early and often in Game 3 at Cleveland.
Hart, just a 30% 3-point shooter in the regular season, has been red hot all postseason and with the way Jalen Brunson is killing everyone, the Pacers are going to sucking down into the paint and forcing kick-outs whenever possible. Hart will get up six-plus 3s in this game. He can make two.
The Nuggets do not want to lose this game, which would mean they would have to close out LeBron James on his home floor to avoid a Game 7 that would come with the crippling pressure of potentially becoming the first team in history to blow a 3-0 lead. Denver plays with urgency pulls away with a familiar second-half surge as the Lakers give in to elimination at altitude.
I like the Suns to go into halftime with the lead in Game 2 as they are desperate to even this series. The longer the game goes, the more Minnesota's defense will grind Phoenix down. But the Suns will be successful early.
Miami is coming off a huge performance to get into this series and all the talk is about how they're going to grind Boston down again. They might do that, but not in Game 1. Boston is ready to set the tone and will run Miami out of the gym to start the series.
Denver is going to win this series but the Lakers are playing very well and are going to make most games tight. Denver will get one blowout in this series but not in Game 1. Take the points.
I've been on this all season and I'm sticking with it: When stars are out, books overreact because they know the pubic will follow. Kawhi Leonard is out and James Harden is questionable, but the Clippers, who want to secure a top-four seed, are still more than capable of playing with a Suns team that isn't as consistent as the roster suggests it should be. This will be a tight game one way or another. Take the points.
The Warriors are desperate for this win with a two-game lead over the Rockets, who they play on Thursday, for the final Play-in spot, but the Mavs are jockeying for postseason positioning as well and they are simply playing too well right now. Golden State should be 3-point dogs at minimum but reputation and the home court is buying them points with causal bettors. Don't fall for it. Dallas wins.
Golden State is a .500 team at home and well below that ATS. The Pacers are battling to stay out of the Play-In and will be able to score on a Warriors defense that is bottom 10 overall. Take the points.
Bogdan Bogdanovic is one of the most dangerous shooters in the league even if you don't hear enough about him. Without Trae Young the Hawks are going to be firing to keep up with the Clippers. Bogey goes over.
I like the Kings straight up in this one. Take the points if you're squeamish but Sacramento is playing well and just defeated the lakers recently in a game that showed the Lakers rally have no way of stopping the Kings once they get going. Domantas Sabonis can struggle with size and physicality, but he went for 20 rebounds and a triple-double last time out vs. Anthony Davis. Roll with Sac.
A lot of teams mess around with weaker opponents. Not the Thunder. They are young and brash and all go all the time, and they are going to blow the doors off Memphis.
I typically like to bet FOR the team missing a star because the line tends to get over-inflated, but in this case with Brunson back for New York and both Maxey AND Embiid out for Philly, it's too much. Knicks cover.
Atlanta is 5-2 since Young went down but it has come against weak/significantly injured opponents. New Orleans is whole and has been great ATS all season. Atlanta has been terrible ATS. This game plays out accordingly.
Doc Rivers is putting Damian Lillard in more positions to do what he did in Portland with a spread floor and higher pick and rolls. I think he gets hot down the stretch, and it starts with a big game against a Warriors team facing the always tricky first game back home after a road trip.