Josh's Past Picks
This clunky yet entertaining series, with 90s throwback vibes, seems destined to go the full seven games. The severely short-handed Knicks managed an unlike 30-point blowout in Game 5 behind another gem from Jalen Brunson. And while he might do it again in Game 7, it's asking a lot for the Knicks to give a cover-worthy performance Friday against a deeper opponent with home-court advantage.
Young has yet to clip this threshold in the three games since his return from a finger injury, But he has been on limited minutes in an attempt to build back his game shape and essentially prepare for a heavy workload in this play-in clunker between two depth-lacking teams. Despite his sometimes-erratic ways, Young has averaged more than 26 points in 27 playoff games and there's little doubt he'll take over as the top option in this do-or-die format. Take the Over on this modest total.
These clubs split four regular-season meetings, with three of them decided by exactly one point. In last year's playoffs, the Warriors rallied to win the seven-game series, but not before dropping the first two games in Sacramento. Amid the backdrop of one of the best home-court edges in the NBA, the right move is to fade the public and back the home underdog.
Oddsmakers were shown to have undervalued Gonzaga in the first round and they've done the same with WCC champ Saint Mary's. Though Grand Canyon is a better team than the McNeese club the Zags were gifted, the Gael have the top scoring defense and rebounding margin in the country. Grand Canyon is second nationally in FTs made but that should be a footnote against a team that knows how to defend without fouling.
The Aggies rallied down the stretch with a five-game winning streak to salvage an NCAA Tournament bid against the intriguing Huskers, who have had a long-awaited breakout season. Buzz Williams' teams are typically built or the postseason and this one is no exception. The Aggies have a dynamic backcourt and should have a major edge on the boards, which should be the difference in this matchup.
We're missing the best of a number that opened at 7.5, but there's still value on the underdog. Although the Aztecs have shown more offensive punch than in past seasons, scoring nearly 75 points per game, they tend to revert to their grinding style in high-stakes contests. Considering that Colorado State, Nevada and Boise State of the Mountain West have already fallen by the wayside, this is not a club you want to lay points with against a potent UAB team.
The injury loss of scoring leader Kevin McCullar Jr. definitely hurts the Jayhawks' long-term outlook. But with Hunter Dickinson back in the fold, they should have more than enough to cruise past a Samford club that has some firepower but was clobbered on the few occasions it stepped outside of its weight class.
The Zags have had something of a down season by their lofty standards, with second-place finishes in the WCC regular season and tournament. Even so, they appear to be peaking toward season's end. The 30-win Cowboys crushed Southland competition but have one of the weakest strengths of schedule in the NCAA field.
Steve Alford's Nevada clubs have a recent history of peaking early before faltering down the stretch. This year's Wolf Pack won seven down the stretch before giving a lackluster performance in the first round of the conference tournament. Dayton appears to be the mentally tougher team, which will likely prove the difference in this air-tight matchup.
The late-blooming Ducks came alive just in time to win the Pac-12 tournament and earn one of the final bids in the field. Now, they should reach the Round of 32 by getting past a South Carolina club that has overachieved most of the season but is now seeing some regression.
This feels like a potential flat spot for a rugged Illini club that exuded a lot of effort on its way to the Big Ten tournament title. The Eagles have an experienced and poised core of players who won't be intimated by this stage and should push Illinois to the wire.
Although the price is a bit chalky, it has actually dropped from a high of -170 or steeper at some outlets. At this price, it's extremely playable as a straight bet or in a single-game parlay. Although TD production is subject to variance, this is still a meager milestone for the game's best QB to clip on a stage where we've seen him excel. Mahomes has hit this mark in two of his previous three Super Bowl appearances.
The dual-threat bellcow is a generational talent. and he's been well worth the multiple draft picks the 49ers traded to get him. He's found the end zone twice in each of the first two postseason games, and there's solid value for him to do it again as he performs on the sport's biggest stage for the first time.
The 49ers' defense has been leaky in the playoffs, while the Chiefs' stagnant offense came alive just in time for the postseason. With the game on turf and numerous game-breakers on each side, this has the feel of a game script similar to when these clubs met in Super Bowl 54. It might be a bit sloe early, but look for second-half fireworks that send this Over the total.
Reynolds has clipped this number 10 times this season, and his 15.2 yards per catch average illustrates he is a big-play threat. With top target Amon-Ra St. Brown destined to garner extra attention from the 49ers secondary, Reynolds should have plenty of opportunities to surpass this number.