Matt's Past Picks
This is a lot of juice for a run line (-1.5, -150), but it's hard to see the Reds keeping this one close. They're using an opener before Nick Martinez, who hasn't gone more than two innings in weeks. They've lost 12 of 14 and are on the third leg of a West coast trip. The Dodgers lost last night and haven't lost two straight in nearly a month. Tyler Glasnow takes the ball for the Dodgers and he'll deal. The most likely finish here is a Dodgers blowout.
The Rockies have won five straight and it's time for that nonsense to stop. They aren't good enough to keep pulling this off, plus they are on the road, where they are now 4-16 after last night's win. Dylan Cease is on the mound for the Padres and he'll dominate while the Padres' offense will handle Rockies' starter Cal Quantrill, who is due a downturn after a few good starts. I don't expect this game to be close, so the run line (-1.5, -135) is a good play.
The Twins have won 17 of their last 20, though a lot of that is against easy competition and the Yankees are better than any team the Twins have taken down all season (they lost two of three to the Dodgers and were swept by the Orioles). Yankees starter Carlos Rodon has mostly been good this season and Twins starter Chris Paddack is going very well right now, but he's feasted on weaker lineups. The Yankees can knock him around.
I'm loving Paul Skenes for his debut today. Look at the over on his K props, as he'll generate plenty of swings and misses with his electric stuff. He won't get past the sixth and might only pitch for five innings, but he'll hold the Cubs down in that time. Cubs ace Justin Steele won't have any issues with the pathetic Pirates' offense, either, which ranks above only the Marlins and White Sox in OPS. It'll be a quick and low-scoring first five.
This is an absurd overreaction to one game last year. The first Mexico City game was 16-11, but it turned out they accidentally used non-humidor balls. The next game was 6-4. Coors Field is only averaging 9.5 runs per game this year. We're gonna nearly double that? With Ronel Blanco on the hill against a terrible Rockies' offense? I hate taking unders, but this line is too enticing to pass up.
Everything here points to a comfortable Orioles' win. They are 15-7 and look every bit as good as their record. Grayson Rodriguez is on the hill and he's continuing to build toward being an ace. Meanwhile, the Angels have lost five straight games and have an incredibly thin lineup. Griffin Canning takes the ball for the Angels and he has an 8.05 ERA so far. The Orioles beat him up on March 30 -- while Rodriguez held the Angels in check with relative ease -- and I'd expect a repeat. I took the run line (-1.5) to move the odds in our favor (+102).
The White Sox are 3-19 and averaging 1.96 runs per game. In their 22 games, they've lost 14 but at least two runs, so playing the run line against them has been very fruitful. We'll continue that here. Pablo Lopez is on the hill for the Twins and he dominating a great Orioles offense last time. He'll feast on this White Sox group. The Twins' offense has been awful, but scored seven last night, so maybe they can shake things loose against the Sox. Erick Fedde, the White Sox starter, has decent surface-level numbers, but his peripherals say he's due a regression. This one shouldn't be close.
The White Sox are 2-14 and have been shut out six times. They've also scored exactly one run three times, so that's more than half their games with 0-1 runs. They average 2.13 runs per game. Brady Singer is on the hill for the Royals with a 0.98 ERA and a rested bullpen behind him. The White Sox are pitching Jonathan Cannon, making his MLB debut and the Royals have had a quality offense. This shouldn't be close, so we're playing the run line (-1.5, -120).
Ronald Acuna Jr. hasn't homered yet this season and it isn't concerning. In fact, he's due, so I'm going to put a sprinkle on him going deep today. Hunter Brown was ravaged last time out and looks broken. Acuna went 2 for 3 with two doubles vs. him last year and the Crawford Boxes are enticing. Acuna is 7 for his last 16 with two doubles, so he's getting locked in. He'll go deep soon. Why not tonight?
The Cubs offense works pitchers incredibly hard. They are among the league leaders in walks, on-base percentage and pitches seen. They score runs in bunches. In the last week, they've held Joe Musgrove to four innings (and he had allowed zero runs through four before falling apart in the fifth), Yu Darvish to three, Yoshinobu Yamamoto to five and Bobby Miller to 1 2/3. I just can't see Cease with his penchant for control issues to get through six against this lineup.
The Rays were playing below their ceiling for a second but have now won three of four after a fluky loss last Friday. Zack Littel takes the ball for the Rays and he's been excellent this season after finishing last year strong. The Angels haven't seen this version of him and he'll throw very well. The Angels counter with Jose Soriano and very likely a handful of relievers. I really love the Rays here on getaway day.
Miller was bad last time out, getting bounced by the Cubs after just 1 2/3 innings. The Cubs' powerful on-base machine is much different than the Twins, though, who rarely walk, haven't hit for much power and are second in strikeout rate at 28.2% this year. Miller has struck out 14 in his 7 2/3 innings this year and the Twins have never seen him. With his nasty stuff, he'll feast on them.
In his career, Freddy Peralta has been much better at home than on the road and he's always struck out hitters at a very high clip. Last time out, he struck out eight in six innings. This time around, he gets the Mariners, who lead the majors by striking out 30.2% of the time. This means I expect Peralta to strikeout at least 1/3 of the batters he faces in this one and THAT means he'll get to eight in the sixth inning. The juice is worth the play here.
What an incredible start to the season for the Pirates, winning six of seven on the road. Of course, the competition was very weak and that changes with the Orioles coming to Pittsburgh. Grayson Rodriguez takes the ball for the Orioles and he's an ace in front of a rested bullpen with an offense that never says die. The Pirates send young, promising righty Jared Jones to the mound and it's possible he'll throw well. I still give the pitching advantage to the Orioles and they are the overall better team. The Pirates are due a little evening out after that trip, too.
In his 15 starts after returning from injury last season, Tarik Skubal had a 2.80 ERA in 80 1/3 innings. He threw six scoreless innings on Opening Day. Against these A's last September, he struck out 10 in seven scoreless innings and only needed 87 pitches to do so. It's the Tigers home opener, but they also played a doubleheader in New York yesterday with one game going into extra innings. I like the combination of Skubal dealing and Tigers manager AJ Hinch getting to save some bullpen for the weekend.